Bitcoin Halving
The next Bitcoin halving is expected around April 20, 2028, in about 568 days. The block reward then drops from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC. Below are all past halvings with the price at the time, followed by a simulator that projects the cycle after the 2028 halving from the past cycles: your assumption, not our forecast.
Past halvings
| Date | Block | Reward | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 28, 2012 | 210,000 | 25 BTC | $12.07 |
| July 9, 2016 | 420,000 | 12.500 BTC | $663 |
| May 11, 2020 | 630,000 | 6.250 BTC | $8,772 |
| April 20, 2024 | 840,000 | 3.125 BTC | $63,768 |
Filled = above the pre-halving high within 730 days, empty = not, dashed = window still open.
Each cycle rose less than the one before (diminishing returns). Dashed = cycle still running.
What past cycles suggest for the next halving
From each halving to the cycle top, Bitcoin has risen less every time: the peak multiples shrink (diminishing returns). The simulator takes that pattern from the completed cycles and projects the next cycle after the 2028 halving. You choose how hard the damping continues (conservative, moderate, aggressive). It computes the absolute peak price from the halving price you assume; the default is the current price.
Grey lines = completed cycles (index = price ÷ halving price), dashed = your projected cycle, ● = projected peak. Hover for date & multiple.
Methodology & data
Halving block heights are fixed by the protocol; past dates are historical, the next date is an estimate based on average block time. The price at each halving comes from our own price database (nearest value). USD prices are the historically traded prices; EUR values are converted from them at each day's ECB reference rate.
The simulator uses the daily USD prices from the same database. Per completed cycle the peak multiple is the highest index (price ÷ price at halving) in the window day 0-730 after the halving. The next peak multiple is the last multiple × decline factor (conservative = smallest, moderate = geometric mean, aggressive = largest of the historical factors). The projected curve shape is the average of the normalized cycle shapes. The absolute peak price is the multiple × your assumed 2028 halving price.
Frequently asked questions
01When is the next Bitcoin halving?
The next halving (block 1,050,000) is expected around April 20, 2028, in about 568 days. The exact day depends on actual block times.
02What happens at a halving?
Every 210,000 blocks (~every 4 years) the reward miners receive per block is cut in half. This slows the rate of new Bitcoin. This is how the 21-million cap comes about.
03How many halvings have there been?
There have been four halvings so far: 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024. The reward fell from 50 to most recently 3.125 BTC per block.
04How did the price behave after past halvings?
In all three completed cycles the price set a new all-time high within two years after the halving. The multiples got smaller each time (diminishing returns): from the halving price to the cycle top ~96x after 2012, ~30x after 2016 and ~8x after 2020. A young, small market can multiply more easily than a large one. That's three data points and not a rule. The Bitcoin cycle page shows the exact path per cycle.
05Is the halving simulator a price forecast?
No. The simulator computes an assumption chosen by you: how hard the damping continues and what the 2028 halving price is. We are not saying it will happen. Past patterns need not repeat. It is a what-if tool based on historical patterns and not a recommendation.
06How does the simulator project the next cycle?
From the completed cycles we compute each cycle's peak multiple (top ÷ halving price) and the average curve shape. The next peak multiple follows the historical decline: conservative = the steepest decline so far, moderate = the geometric mean, aggressive = the mildest decline. The multiples come from the US dollar series, which holds the historically traded prices. If you choose euros, the simulator applies the same multiples to your euro price.
07Why does the simulator project the cycle after 2028 and not the current one?
The simulator needs a complete cycle as its starting point. The cycle since the 2024 halving is not complete yet, so the projection starts at the 2028 halving.